Last updated on August 16, 2020
Remember, let’s be polite; let’s be respectful, but most of all, let’s be outspoken.
Let’s be honest: this nation was drastically different seven months ago. President Trump was just impeached by the House, everyone was worried about a potential US-Iran conflict, and the Democrats were reluctant in consolidating around Biden as the nominee. It was simpler times.
Now, thousands have died as a result of a global pandemic, the economy is volatile, and Biden has a good chance of becoming the forty-sixth US President.
Three months ago, I wrote an editorial titled “Does Biden have a chance?” In which I stated, “Therefore, does he have a chance? If he continues his campaign at the current rate and approach, then he does not. It depends on what Trump does in the next few months and what Biden is willing to do.”
The problem is my prediction was wrong. Joe Biden has not changed his approach to this election at all since I wrote that article in May. He has remained confined to the walls of his basement and is not on the campaign trail giving two-hour-long speeches. Because of his mental health, memory, and continuous flops, his current campaign situation is ideal.
In fact, Biden has said multiple inflammatory statements in the past few months that would have ended the career of any Republican such as “Well I tell you what, if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” He also said, “Unlike the African American community, with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community with incredibly diverse attitudes about different things.”
It would be extremely ill-advised to put Biden on a traditional campaign trail because he will say something that will prove fatal to his campaign.
While I was wrong about my prediction of Biden’s approach, I was right about my prediction on Trump’s approach. In the words of one of my favorite commentators, “Politics is the art of making your opponent look unelectable and making you look electable. Trump is good at the former, but terrible at the latter.”
Since May, Trump has taken controversial stances on BLM.
Whether or not these tweets are true is irrelevant to the continuous polarization campaign orchestrated by Trump. If the campaign wants to see a major improvement in national polling in the months leading up to Election Day, then his twitter habits need to stop. Impulsive, decisive statements hastily typed on Twitter is not doing any favors for his campaign. While it is hyping up his loyal base, he needs to focus on appealing to political moderates.
To Trump’s credit, his Mount Rushmore speech was necessary and well said. In terms of his policy, his fixation on Tik Tok is helping his campaign in portraying China as a threat to national security. He has also sent federal troops to respond to the escalating violent demonstrations occurring across the nation. Right now, he is engaged in a fiery feud over the Coronavirus relief in Washington.
The national polling is also showing Biden leading the election. As of August 10th, 2020, FiveThirtyEight national polling states Biden is leading Trump by 8.2 percent with Biden at 50.1 percent and Trump at 41.9 percent. Real Clear Politics has Biden leading by 6.9 percent with Biden at 48.9 percent and Trump at 42 percent.
The problem with Trump and this election is that there is very little Trump can do when attacking Biden. He has constantly attacked Biden on his mental health and memory, but that has been a stick dragged through the mud for months now. In reality, Biden is perceived as non-threatening. He is not seemingly impulsive on Twitter, he does not stoke negative feelings in Americans, and his presence reminds voters of the Obama era, something many currently desire.
However, the biggest blow to the Trump campaign is the historical trend of first-term presidents. According to the Independent, out of all the forty-five presidents who attempted re-election, only ten have lost. In almost every instance, the nation wanted a change in leadership because of the current situation or a loss of faith in the President.
This is true for the last four incumbent presidents that lost re-election. For President Hoover, it was the impending economic crash. For Gerald Ford, it was the economic recession of the late 1970s and his presidential pardon of Richard Nixon. For Jimmy Carter, it was the energy crisis and poor relations with democratic leaders. For Bush, it was breaking his pledge of no new taxes.
Right now, Trump is facing a global crisis and a domestic war zone. Thousands have lost family members to COVID-19, and millions are barely making ends meet. Small businesses have shut down, and unemployment has skyrocketed. The disarray in Capitol hill is due to the bifurcating rhetoric of both sides and Trump’s dialect. In a time of a crisis, a new leader may be the answer to the present problems. Unless he can safely ensure resounding advance in the aftermath of the status quo, Trump will lose the election.
Lastly, when I say this is Biden’s election to lose, I mean Biden basically secured the presidency unless he vows to start World War Three with Russia. This election really comes down to whether or not there is a widespread desire to change leaders or loss of faith in Trump’s Presidency.
Remember, let’s be polite; let’s be respectful, but most of all, let’s be outspoken.
[…] I published an article saying unless Biden says or does something incredibly damaging to his campaign, he will secure the […]